The Next Big Lie

....is coming to us in September.

It is being shown around in test screenings on the Larry King Show by Mr. Richard Cheney.

The other day I posted http://fatherdaughtertalk.blogspot.com/2007/08/richard-cheney-observes.html where we see:  

"The venerable Richard Cheney, Vice President of the USA, has observed that the surge of troops is working. Among the proofs offerred is the fact that the 78 deaths of American troops in July 2007 is the lowest in a year."  

Subsequently I decided to look at the mortality rate by month, since that is what Mr. Cheney is talking about.
I found the site Iraqi Coalition Casualties at http://www.icasualties.org/oif/ which keeps track of such things. The number of US forces deaths in July, 2007 there is 81, not 78. The chart displaying the monthly death rates are able to be copied into a spreadsheet where they may be subject to statistical analysis.

 (1) Average Number of deaths per month: January 74.75 February 53.50 March 52.80 April 88.20 May 78.40 June 62.40 July 55.80 August 62.75 September 58.00 October 77.50 November 93.25 December 73.00 The months in order, greatest mortality to least: 1...November 2...April 3...May 4...October 5...January 6...December 7...August 8...June 9...September 10..July 11..February 12..March Unfortunately, I cannot transport any charts from Excel to this blog.

(2) We had mentioned that Mortality Activity fell off in the summer months. Deaths fall off in February and March, spiking upwards in May, declining again to July, remaining low until October where the numbers pick up and spike again in November. We said the activity falls due to heat in the summer. This does not explain the low point in February and March. However, we see that June, July, August, and September are listed within the lower 6 months with lesser deaths.

(3) When Mr. Cheney said the number of deaths was the lowest in July in a year, he meant within the year 2007 so far, not within the 12 month period of July 2006 to July 2007. The second interpretation would make his statement obviously false. However, the 80 deaths in July 2007 marks an increase of 86% over the 43 deaths of July 2006.

(4) Looking at the periods of January through July for 2007 and 2006, we see the following increases: January 2007 shows an increase of 34% over the corresponding period of 2006. February 2007 shows an increase of 47%, March shows an increase of 161%, April shows an increase of 37%, May shows an increase of 83%, June shows an increase of 66%, and July shows an increase of 86% over the corresponding period of 2006. All increases. The increase for July is the second greatest increase for a period of 2007 over 2006.

(5) If the increased number of US troops and whatever new strategy they are using is actually working, what may we expect for the Death Numbers of August? We have seen an increase in activity ranging from 34% to 161% so far in 2007. We would expect an increase in August. The prediction now, based on an August average of 72 deaths - ignoring the first year of the war before the insurgency entrenched itself- we expect a minimum of 101.52 deaths.

Anything less than 101, then we must consider that the surge is actually effecting the death rate. After all this, the best way to evaluate the Surge may not be the death rate. What I like best about the War is the feeling that we cannot do anything. That is indeed an eerie feeling. Not even in the doldrums of Vietnam did the populace at large seem to feel that. At that time, those who did not support the war got out an demonstrated. Now we just sit and stare at TV.

Oh, Death ! Oh, won't Ya give me just one more year !

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