Black Swans

Black Swan: symbol of outlying, extreme cases of low probability

What is the probability that the nation's worst financial crisis and worst environmental crisis occur within 2 years of each other?

Or, add a war based on non-existent WMDs, and what is the probability that these occur within the same 7 years span?

Are all such cases extreme cases and of low probability? If so, why are they all occurring? If not, how have we skewed the probabilities so that what was once extreme is now moving more towards the average?

Watch the films Network and Fight Club. Observe how the 1975-mordant satire of Network has been supplanted and rendered quaint by Fight Club's darker and deeper biting satire, Fight Club itself being made obsolete by events since 2001 on.

How can our outlook change so fast?
So fast... that is the emblem of this radical age. If you don't believe this age to be Revolution Incarnate, just wait... it'll change so-o-o fast.

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