Wednesday, June 11, 2008
The Housing Sector And A Republi-Con President
There is no sign that the decline in the prices of houses will abate any time soon. This primary decline is the result of the end of the housing bubble.
After the decline due to this ending of the bubble stops, there will be an interval of sort of a random walk with no particular trend, followed by another, less precipitous decline as the market tries to evaluate the assets; i.e., houses, that they are dealing with.
Just like the financial sector, the housing sector is coming off a bout of night-on-the-town capitalism and finds itself embarassed in the morning: it has assets whose value has been an illusion, like the promise of "I love you" made in the heat of drunken passion the night before.
As previously mentioned, the quality of much of construction during the bubble is obviously sub-standard.
These assets will not recover in value - unless we can segue into a brand new bubble.
However, that scenario cannot come to be until another RepubiliCon ( combined of Republican and Neocon ) is elected. These people followed an economic philosophy termed "Voodoo Economics" by one George Herbert Walker Bush, and it goes back to the Reagan era.
I estimate the amount of inferior product to be a minimum of 40% of total construction during the period. Furthermore, fully 25% of all such construction is worthless for use as a domicile by the time the period of the primary decline will have ended.
This will cause the secondary decline.
How long will the primary decline continue?
Due to the bubble, the value of houses far exceeded the ability of the buyer to pay off their debt. However, since there was a bubble and the value of the houses immediately increased and credit was easily - too easily - available, there was no problem as long as the skin of the bubble did not burst.
Now, however, the decline has not been enough to value the house at a price which the buyer, stuck with the house now, is able to pay it off, since salaries and wages have essentially been stagnant since the 1980s.
I do not expect wages to increase here in the 3rd world.
Hence, the primary decline will continue for at least 6 more quarters.
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