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Thursday, June 07, 2012

Why My Banker Thinks Me Mad



In posting this I am taking you into my deep confidence: why my banker, who is a very understanding type, thinks me very odd, indeed. I am lucky to have found a banker who finds my eccentricities charming, rather than alarming.

Very briefly: I believe that the financial system will implode in 2013, that year being the end of the next interval of catastrophes, intervals equal in length of years to a Fibonacci decreasing series.
Why a Fibonacci series, God only knows. However, I thought it was obvious that the financial system was losing control over what it does: creating money at the speed of light. (And - by the by - the "printing presses of money" which the government is deemed to turn on and off at will are nothing but these here banks... we tend to think the government has its own presses somewhere in Fort Knox.) (see Future Flash Crash)

2013 is a point estimate, and there is probably an error of plus/minus one to two years at least, due to imprecision at the beginning and at the end of the intervals.

My banker walked me through 2011, through the terrors of risks, known and unknown, old and new - the new ones being domestic political risk of having idiots running the government who thought defaulting on obligations to be a "keen" idea. This risk kicked in on August 2, as I recall when the Dow plummeted 500 points.

My banker mentored me, and I owe him a great debt of gratitude. The notion of a stock market debacle is much more nuanced than that horror that exists in my imagination, and my understanding was much improved...

at least until Chase Bank lost $2 billion dollars this year...

and the most biting criticism and analysis about this debacle are written by bankers themselves in financial blogs and banking journals...

and every explanation is another form of "We lost control!"

If and when the Republicans win in 2012, financial regulation will be dead, and I think my fine, fine madness will suddenly seem old news by the end of a few years.
This does not mean the Democrats will avoid this bit of unpleasantness; the Republicans will merely accelerate and confirm it. Both parties are at fault.
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2 comments:

Baysage said...

I have come to the conclusion that we are doomed no matter who gets elected. If Obama wins, the GOP will be even =more= intransigent than now. And the country will drift for another four years. What will be left of it then? Of course, we all know what awaits if the Republicans win.

Montag said...

I just read a "thing" from the atrocious rag "Newsmax" this A.M. entitled something like hpow to survive the 2013 Crash!

They did not have a 2013 Crash before! They stole it!