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Thursday, November 20, 2014

Mad Max's Oil Futures

"GDP Rose Again For The 6th Straight Month..."

At CBS MoneyWatch

there is an eye-opening and rather alarming article for those believers in a constant march upwards of Progress and Gross Domestic Product.
Succinctly, there is work suggesting that after a recession, the economy does not return to long term trend of GDP, ratherthe trend line itself tends to lower a bit and make it look like the GDP has returned to the trend line.

The economy doesn't return to trend so much as the trend is revised downward to reflect weaker economic output.


The conclusion is that demand shocks may have a permanent impact on a country's GDP. In short, the shocks are not fully reversed over time as economists have long believed. What does that mean in practice? In the job market, it could mean that the long-term unemployed never find work.
If the Fed researchers are correct, that has enormous implications for what might be necessary to help the U.S. economy get back on track. Government policies to maintain employment -- by modernizing the country's aging roads, bridges and other infrastructure, for example -- may avoid some of the permanent effects of the cataclysm that followed the 2008 financial crisis.

What does this mean?

Well, I find it rather astounding, as it flies in the face of our quaint faith in progress.

It is the Science Fiction of Dystopian Futures made Mathematical and Real.


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