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Friday, May 25, 2012

The Future????


What it all comes down to... most unfortunately... is deflation.

Once I did a post on asset prices - what things cost over time. I mentioned in old films you see signs in a diner window that read  "Breakfast...... 50 cents" , and you know that in the time from the year in which the film is set until the present that the rate of inflation would have caused that slice of buttered bread, rasher of bacon, and two eggs over easy to cost around $50,000 today.
So why is breakfast still available to the 99% of us?

Deflation is the answer. After Capitalism goes through its period of asset prices inflating, bubbles burst and prices deflate, like a run away balloon that has not been secured. A corollary of all this is that as prices fall, so do wages.

This election is a contest between different ways of deflating prices. The Republicans want to break the backs of a generation of the non-rich with a quick, down-and-dirty precipitous drop in prices, whereas the Democrats want to at least try and spread the pain, and perhaps try to keep severe deflation at bay.
There is absolutely no guarantee of either method, except that the Republican method could result in a free fall of prices seeking a bottom, and maybe a century later we would be back right about where we were before this all started.

That's about it.

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