Richard Cheney Observes 2

http://fatherdaughtertalk.blogspot.com/2007/08/richard-cheney-observes.html The Vice President did some odd things with mortality statistics in the above post and we had to have recourse to the actual figures to make sense of things. That is one thing I have noticed about Iraq death figures: they rarely are consistent from one source to another in as much as one figure will lead to widely differing interpretations, so much so that I have frequently had the experience of being mystified and wondering what was going on. Richard Cheney had that effect on me for he said that the "Surge" ( "Il Surgiamento") was working and the proof was that July, 2007 had the lowest number of deaths since January, 2007. Then the very next day I read that July, 2007 has the HIGHEST number of deaths for any July in the war! So off to the casualty figures. Today I see in the Progressive Review a graph of the figures, clearly showing the increases of 2007 over 2006: http://prorev.com/index.htm

This chart, prepared by Angry Bear, shows that GI Iraq fatalities in 2007 have exceeded those in 2006 each month so far.

Note that the estimated figure for August, 2007 is 107. My estimate was 101. Thanks to God, it was only 84. I think we may safely conclude that: The Surge is working to reduce the greatly increased Mortality of 2007 over 2006, and trying to keep it under control.

Richard Cheney, The Kwantung Army, And The Gang Of Four

Iraq: A Gang of Four Production

At the BBC we read Cheney insists Iraq surge working in http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6925368.stm

As we read through, we come across this:  

"The Petraeus-Crocker report is due to be presented before Congress on 15 September. Democrats, who are in control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, want President George W Bush to come up with a military withdrawal plan from Iraq for 2008. But the man Mr Bush has nominated as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Michael Mullen, has predicted that the US will be in Iraq for years, not months, and he warned Congress against attempts to secure a rapid pull-out of troops. "  

This brings us to the point where we must stop and consider.

Surely the generals and the army know how to fight a war, at least some of the time. They did not seem to know how to fight this type of war. General Petraeus had to be rescued from oblivion and obloquy to head up the new and improved fourth generation warfare. We must ask ourselves whether the tail is wagging the dog. Are we still in control of our own destiny? Or has our blind devotion to things military led us to an impasse where war's events control all aspects of our lives?

Do the exigencies of the war in Iraq - as they are perceived by the military- take precedence over all other considerations? We might easily answer that if we had some sort of policy in place rather than the roughly cobbled mish-mosh used by the present administration, then we would follow our policy. You have to have a goal. Our goal in Iraq was elimate Weapons of Mass Destruction. There weren't any. So then we said it was all worth it so we might hang Saddam Hussein in a frightful execution scenario after a trial in a kangaroo court. And then we said we have to stop the mighty and powerful IRAN. And so on and so on.

There literally is no end to this, in case you haven't figured that out yet.
What does it mean to have no goal, no well defined policy to follow and judge one's actions? One result is that the tail tends to wag the dog, or the tiger. This means that events are no longer controlled by the decision makers in Washington D.C., rather the events in Iraq and the war are in controll and the people in Washington scurry about trying to address issues, cover their backsides, and generally try to create the illusion that they planned it all from the beginning.

Let us look back in history to 1905 when Japan sent the Kwangtung Army to Manchuria to guard Japanese interests.
Manchuria is a huge area and many in Jpana and in the Kwangtung Army thought it would be just what Japan needed to alleviate the overcrowding of the home islands, to be markets for their goods, and to be a source for raw materials for Japan's industry.
By the summer of 1931, elements within the Kwangtung Army were ready to take Manchuria from Chinese control. A charge of dynamite was planted on the tracks of the South Manchurian Railway near Mukden; its explosion was to be the excuse to "bring order" by sending troops to seize Mukden.

By the morning of September 19, 1931 Mukden was in Japanese hands, much to the dismay of the world and Tokyo. The Cabinet ordered the Army General Staff to limit the scope of hostilities, but individuals within the Kwangtung Army ignored this. The War Ministry finally radioed the Kwangtung Army a reproach:  
1. The Kwangtung Army is to refrain from any new project such as becoming independent from the Imperial Army and seizing control of Manchuria and Mongolia...


We do not mean to imply that the US Army is acting like the Kwangtung Army.
We do mean to imply that events in war sometimes shape policy rather than policy shaping the conduct of the war. If there is no strong, well defined policy -such as is the present case-then it is easier for the events and exigencies of war to define policy, effectively taking decision making from the hands of elected representatives. We are seeing indications of this already. Our representatives and those who wish to be our representatives clearly are divided into 2 camps: (1) those who see the WAR as a given and are determined to let it play out into whatever dead end it goes to, and (2) those who maintain the right and honor to choose whether or not they will commit themselves to this infamy.

The Gang of Four of the title are Mr. Bush, Mr. Cheney, Mr. Rumsfeld, and Ms. Rice. They have been aided and abetted in their actions by numerous neoconservatives. Neoconservatives now say that the Iraq War was a strategic blunder. I say that it was more than that; this War was a lie and a crime. It was conceived in iniquity and born in perfidy. March 19, 2003 is a Day that will truly live in infamy. We must take back the right to choose between good and evil. We must not assume a worldy-wise posture and shrug, saying that people will have wars anyway.

Our whole way of life is based on the premise that we are free to choose, so now you must choose.

Th-th-that's all, Folks !

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The Next Big Lie

....is coming to us in September.

It is being shown around in test screenings on the Larry King Show by Mr. Richard Cheney.

The other day I posted http://fatherdaughtertalk.blogspot.com/2007/08/richard-cheney-observes.html where we see:  

"The venerable Richard Cheney, Vice President of the USA, has observed that the surge of troops is working. Among the proofs offerred is the fact that the 78 deaths of American troops in July 2007 is the lowest in a year."  

Subsequently I decided to look at the mortality rate by month, since that is what Mr. Cheney is talking about.
I found the site Iraqi Coalition Casualties at http://www.icasualties.org/oif/ which keeps track of such things. The number of US forces deaths in July, 2007 there is 81, not 78. The chart displaying the monthly death rates are able to be copied into a spreadsheet where they may be subject to statistical analysis.

 (1) Average Number of deaths per month: January 74.75 February 53.50 March 52.80 April 88.20 May 78.40 June 62.40 July 55.80 August 62.75 September 58.00 October 77.50 November 93.25 December 73.00 The months in order, greatest mortality to least: 1...November 2...April 3...May 4...October 5...January 6...December 7...August 8...June 9...September 10..July 11..February 12..March Unfortunately, I cannot transport any charts from Excel to this blog.

(2) We had mentioned that Mortality Activity fell off in the summer months. Deaths fall off in February and March, spiking upwards in May, declining again to July, remaining low until October where the numbers pick up and spike again in November. We said the activity falls due to heat in the summer. This does not explain the low point in February and March. However, we see that June, July, August, and September are listed within the lower 6 months with lesser deaths.

(3) When Mr. Cheney said the number of deaths was the lowest in July in a year, he meant within the year 2007 so far, not within the 12 month period of July 2006 to July 2007. The second interpretation would make his statement obviously false. However, the 80 deaths in July 2007 marks an increase of 86% over the 43 deaths of July 2006.

(4) Looking at the periods of January through July for 2007 and 2006, we see the following increases: January 2007 shows an increase of 34% over the corresponding period of 2006. February 2007 shows an increase of 47%, March shows an increase of 161%, April shows an increase of 37%, May shows an increase of 83%, June shows an increase of 66%, and July shows an increase of 86% over the corresponding period of 2006. All increases. The increase for July is the second greatest increase for a period of 2007 over 2006.

(5) If the increased number of US troops and whatever new strategy they are using is actually working, what may we expect for the Death Numbers of August? We have seen an increase in activity ranging from 34% to 161% so far in 2007. We would expect an increase in August. The prediction now, based on an August average of 72 deaths - ignoring the first year of the war before the insurgency entrenched itself- we expect a minimum of 101.52 deaths.

Anything less than 101, then we must consider that the surge is actually effecting the death rate. After all this, the best way to evaluate the Surge may not be the death rate. What I like best about the War is the feeling that we cannot do anything. That is indeed an eerie feeling. Not even in the doldrums of Vietnam did the populace at large seem to feel that. At that time, those who did not support the war got out an demonstrated. Now we just sit and stare at TV.

Oh, Death ! Oh, won't Ya give me just one more year !

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